Tue September 7, 2010
Analyst: Caprio favorite in RI governor's race
By Ian Donnis
Providence, R.I. – Democrat Frank Caprio has a strong likelihood of winning the governor's office, according to one political analyst.
A forecast done by analyst Nate Silver and published by the New York Times finds that as of Sept. 3 Caprio has a 61 percent chance of winning. That's based on a matchup with independent candidate Cincoln Chafee -- who is said to have a 34 percent chance of victory -- and republican john robitaille -- who is given a five percent chance.
When victor moffit is the republican candidate, Caprio is said to have a 71 percent chance of victory. The likelihood of victory is 27 percent for Chafee, and three percent for Moffitt.
Silver is a respected statistical analyst who publishes the web site, five-thirty-eight-dot-com.
In his Sept. 3 model, silver predicts 38 percent of the November vote will go to Caprio, about 34 percent to Chafee, and 26 percent to Robitaille. Caprio has a slightly bigger lead when Moffit is the Republican candidate. These percentage figures have a margin of error of between 11 and 13 percent.